Tesla investor and Future Fund Managing Partner Gary Black shared his expectations concerning the electric pickup truck.
What Happened: Black said he expects three variants of the Cybertruck to roll out when Tesla launches it later this year.
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Gary Black’s predictions for the Cybertruck
The estimated pricing will keep the vehicle under the IRA cap for pickups, the fund manager said.
“My guess is they start with quad motor delivs [sic] first since initial start-up costs will be high, then go to dual motor, then single motor,” Black said.
Why It’s Important: Ford Motor Co‘s (NYSE:F) F-150 Lightning lineup begins with the base trim, known as the F-150 Lightning Pro. It boasts dual motors and starts at $49,995, offering an EPA range of 240 miles. It was initially priced at $59,974 but shortly after Tesla confirmed the production of its first Cybertruck, Ford reduced it by roughly $10,000.
On the other end of the spectrum, the top-tier F-150 Lightning Platinum kicks off at $91,995.
Black is among the analysts who are uber-bullish on the Cybertruck. He sees Tesla’s 2024 volume estimates to move sharply higher, thanks to the Cybertruck launch along with the Model 3 refresh and full self-driving V12 L4 coming to fruition. Volume growth will begin to accelerate in the fourth quarter, the fund manager said.
“Today analysts are forecasting FY’24 volume growth of just +27% (after +40% growth in FY’23) which seems absurdly low with three major volume catalysts on the horizon,” he added.
Black sees a similar scenario as what happened when the Model Y was launched in 2020 and lifted Tesla’s volume growth from 36% in 2020 to 87% in 2021.
“There will be a huge halo effect that ignites the entire $TSLA franchise by interest generated from Cytruck and M-3 Refresh,” he said.
The fund manager said he has high conviction based on what happened with the Model Y in 2021. “How can the first $TSLA pickup with 2M pre-orders be a flop?? CT will be a huge hit,” he said.
Tesla shares closed Wednesday’s session down 1.78% at $251.92, according to Zenger News Pro data.
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